Cacereno vs Cultural Leonesa
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 18:15 CET
DLDLW
DLWDLThe score model made a Cacereno win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cacereno 1.06 – 1.00 Cultural Leonesa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cacereno win | 35.8% | 27.0% | +8.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.8% | 29.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Cultural Leonesa win | 32.4% | 43.1% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 41.1% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 22.4% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 47.0% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 28.4% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cacereno 26.6 / Cultural Leonesa 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cacereno vs Cultural Leonesa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.