Tenerife vs Ceuta
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 14:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Tenerife win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ceuta win — 27.2% vs 23.2% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tenerife 1.35 – 0.98 Ceuta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 45.1% | 49.9% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.9% | +0.8% |
| Ceuta win | 27.2% | 23.2% | +4.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Tenerife 30.9 / Ceuta 37.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tenerife vs Ceuta in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.