Eldense vs Sabadell
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 18:30 CET
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DWLDLThe score model makes a Sabadell win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sabadell win — 37.2% vs 31.9% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eldense 1.14 – 1.20 Sabadell.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense win | 34.6% | 38.8% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 29.3% | -1.1% |
| Sabadell win | 37.2% | 31.9% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Eldense 28.8 / Sabadell 11 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eldense vs Sabadell in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.