Eibar vs Cadiz CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-15 · 18:30 CET
WLDLD
LLWLLThe score model makes an Eibar win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eibar 1.88 – 1.03 Cadiz CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 57.2% | 58.0% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.3% | -0.9% |
| Cadiz CF win | 20.4% | 18.7% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 54.2% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 33.0% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 53.0% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 36.7% | -1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Eibar 55.8 / Cadiz CF 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eibar vs Cadiz CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.