Valladolid vs Castellon
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 14:00 CET
WLLWW
DLWWDThe score model makes a Castellon win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.7% vs 67.4% implied (+3.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valladolid 1.27 – 1.46 Castellon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 33.0% | 33.3% | -0.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.8% | -1.1% |
| Castellon win | 41.4% | 39.9% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 53.4% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 32.6% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 57.9% | -2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 36.8% | +0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Valladolid 43 / Castellon 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valladolid vs Castellon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.