Real Sociedad B vs Gijon
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 16:15 CET
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WWLWLThe score model makes a Real Sociedad B win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gijon win — 36.6% vs 33.0% implied (+3.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Sociedad B 1.44 – 1.40 Gijon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad B win | 38.2% | 39.8% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 27.2% | -2.0% |
| Gijon win | 36.6% | 33.0% | +3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Real Sociedad B 36 / Gijon 56.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Real Sociedad B vs Gijon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.