Oviedo vs Girona
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 21:00 CET
WWDLW
DWWLLThe score model makes an Oviedo win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oviedo 1.39 – 1.27 Girona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 39.8% | 39.1% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.6% | -2.6% |
| Girona win | 34.1% | 32.3% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 48.5% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 28.4% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 54.2% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 33.3% | -1.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Oviedo 31.8 / Girona 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oviedo vs Girona in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.