Almeria vs Andorra
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-14 · 18:30 CET
WWDDW
DWLLDThe score model makes an Almeria win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Andorra win — 25.1% vs 20.9% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almeria 1.86 – 1.23 Andorra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 52.2% | 55.8% | -3.6% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.3% | -0.5% |
| Andorra win | 25.1% | 20.9% | +4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 57.3% | +2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 37.1% | +0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 56.1% | +3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 38.9% | +1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Almeria 48.8 / Andorra 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Almeria vs Andorra in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.