Leganes vs Burgos CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-13 · 20:30 CET
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LWWDWThe score model makes a Burgos CF win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Burgos CF win — 42.8% vs 27.1% implied (+15.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leganes 1.05 – 1.32 Burgos CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 29.4% | 44.1% | -14.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 28.7% | -1.0% |
| Burgos CF win | 42.8% | 27.1% | +15.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 45.7% | -3.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 25.6% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 51.8% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 31.6% | -5.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Leganes 45.1 / Burgos CF 57 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leganes vs Burgos CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.