Sabadell vs Real Sociedad B
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-09 · 20:30 CET
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LLLLWThe score model makes a Sabadell win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Real Sociedad B win — 21.8% vs 17.8% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sabadell 1.67 – 0.97 Real Sociedad B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell win | 53.7% | 58.1% | -4.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 24.1% | +0.4% |
| Real Sociedad B win | 21.8% | 17.8% | +4.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 50.7% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 30.1% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 50.4% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 34.9% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sabadell 11.1 / Real Sociedad B 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sabadell vs Real Sociedad B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.