Las Palmas vs Eldense
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 18:30 CET
LDLLW
WWWLLThe score model makes a Las Palmas win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.39 – 1.08 Eldense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 44.1% | 43.4% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.1% | -1.1% |
| Eldense win | 28.9% | 28.5% | +0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Las Palmas 37.1 / Eldense 29.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Las Palmas vs Eldense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.