Girona vs Almeria
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 16:15 CET
DDWWL
WWWDDThe score model makes a Girona win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Girona win — 54.9% vs 46.4% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Girona 1.95 – 1.19 Almeria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 54.9% | 46.4% | +8.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 26.2% | -4.1% |
| Almeria win | 23.0% | 27.4% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 54.7% | +6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 34.0% | +4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 57.2% | +2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.2% | +1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Girona 11.1 / Almeria 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Girona vs Almeria in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.