Gijon vs Valladolid
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-08 · 18:30 CET
WWWLW
WDWLLThe score model makes a Gijon win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gijon win — 46.3% vs 40.7% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gijon 1.46 – 1.06 Valladolid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gijon win | 46.3% | 40.7% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.9% | -2.5% |
| Valladolid win | 27.4% | 30.4% | -3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gijon 56.7 / Valladolid 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gijon vs Valladolid in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.