Leganes vs Albacete
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-07 · 18:30 CET
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LLLWWThe score model makes a Leganes win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Albacete win — 29.5% vs 26.1% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leganes 1.39 – 1.10 Albacete.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 43.6% | 46.6% | -3.0% |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.3% | -0.4% |
| Albacete win | 29.5% | 26.1% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Leganes 43.6 / Albacete 56.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leganes vs Albacete in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.