Granada CF vs Tenerife
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-07 · 21:00 CET
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DLDDDThe score model makes a Granada CF win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Tenerife win — 25.8% vs 23.2% implied (+2.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Granada CF 1.51 – 1.03 Tenerife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granada CF win | 48.2% | 49.6% | -1.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 27.1% | -1.1% |
| Tenerife win | 25.8% | 23.2% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 44.5% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 24.7% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 48.7% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 30.8% | -0.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Granada CF 50.7 / Tenerife 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Granada CF vs Tenerife in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.