Cordoba vs Ceuta
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-07 · 18:30 CET
WLWWD
DLLLLThe score model makes a Cordoba win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ceuta win — 22.7% vs 16.5% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cordoba 1.97 – 1.19 Ceuta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 55.3% | 63.5% | -8.2% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 20.0% | +1.9% |
| Ceuta win | 22.7% | 16.5% | +6.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cordoba 48.6 / Ceuta 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cordoba vs Ceuta in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.