Cadiz CF vs Oviedo
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-07 · 16:15 CET
DWLLW
WLWWDThe score model makes an Oviedo win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 49.6% vs 38.9% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cadiz CF 1.15 – 1.51 Oviedo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz CF win | 28.9% | 34.5% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 30.7% | -4.9% |
| Oviedo win | 45.3% | 34.9% | +10.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 38.9% | +10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 20.9% | +6.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 46.5% | +6.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 27.3% | +4.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cadiz CF 47.7 / Oviedo 30.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cadiz CF vs Oviedo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.