Cordoba vs Tenerife
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-05 · 20:30 CET
LLLWL
LDWLDThe score model made a Cordoba win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cordoba 1.43 – 1.06 Tenerife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 45.4% | 49.7% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Tenerife win | 27.6% | 23.6% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 53.2% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 32.0% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 56.1% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 34.4% | -6.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cordoba 46.1 / Tenerife 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.