Real Sociedad B vs Granada CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-04 · 14:00 CET
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DLLWWThe score model made a Real Sociedad B win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Sociedad B 1.48 – 1.32 Granada CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad B win | 40.8% | 36.3% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 29.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Granada CF win | 33.7% | 34.7% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 49.2% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 28.8% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 55.2% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.4% | 33.7% | +4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Sociedad B 33.5 / Granada CF 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.