Las Palmas vs Valladolid
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-04 · 18:30 CET
DWLLD
WLDWDThe score model made a Las Palmas win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.49 – 0.77 Valladolid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 54.2% | 40.9% | +13.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 29.5% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Valladolid win | 19.2% | 29.7% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 46.8% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 26.7% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 52.8% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 31.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Las Palmas 37.1 / Valladolid 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.