Eldense vs Oviedo
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-02 · 20:30 CET
DWLLW
DWLWLThe score model made an Oviedo win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 4:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eldense 0.84 – 1.21 Oviedo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense win | 25.5% | 37.4% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 31.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Oviedo win | 44.5% | 31.2% | +13.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.7% | 38.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.2% | 20.0% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.1% | 46.6% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 27.2% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eldense 25.8 / Oviedo 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.