Leganes vs Castellon
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-28 · 20:30 CET
DLWLL
WWWWDThe score model made a Castellon win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leganes 1.13 – 1.29 Castellon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 32.3% | 29.3% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 28.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Castellon win | 40.0% | 42.3% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 50.9% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 29.9% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 56.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 34.6% | -7.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leganes 42 / Castellon 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.