Valladolid vs Cordoba
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-27 · 14:00 CET
WDWLL
WLWWDThe score model made a Valladolid win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valladolid 1.36 – 1.23 Cordoba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 39.6% | 40.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.8% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Cordoba win | 33.5% | 32.0% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 52.9% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 31.9% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 57.9% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 35.9% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valladolid 39.4 / Cordoba 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valladolid vs Cordoba in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.