Seongnam vs Daegu
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-11-07 · 06:00 CET
LDLLL
WLWWDThe score model makes a Daegu win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Seongnam win — 30.0% vs 23.8% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seongnam 1.25 – 1.57 Daegu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seongnam win | 30.0% | 23.8% | +6.2% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.0% | +1.7% |
| Daegu win | 44.3% | 52.2% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 56.0% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 35.7% | -4.4% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 56.7% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 38.3% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Seongnam 48.8 / Daegu 22.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Seongnam vs Daegu in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.