Jeonnam vs Suwon FC
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-19 · 09:30 CET
DLWLL
DDWWWThe score model made a Suwon FC win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeonnam 1.39 – 2.05 Suwon FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonnam win | 25.4% | 25.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.2% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Suwon FC win | 52.4% | 49.2% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 58.1% | +8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.0% | 37.5% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 59.4% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 39.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeonnam 50 / Suwon FC 20.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jeonnam vs Suwon FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.