Gimpo FC vs Busan
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-19 · 12:00 CET
DWLWL
LWLDWThe score model made a Gimpo FC win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimpo FC 1.20 – 1.14 Busan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimpo FC win | 36.9% | 38.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 28.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Busan win | 33.9% | 33.3% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 49.1% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 28.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 54.0% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 33.7% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimpo FC 49 / Busan 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gimpo FC vs Busan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.