Cheongju vs Suwon Bluewings
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-01 · 12:30 CET
WDLLW
WWWWWThe score model made a Suwon Bluewings win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheongju 0.81 – 1.68 Suwon Bluewings.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheongju win | 17.5% | 18.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 23.9% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Suwon Bluewings win | 57.7% | 58.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 51.2% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 30.2% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 50.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 34.9% | -11.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheongju 47.2 / Suwon Bluewings 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.