Cheongju vs Suwon Bluewings
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-01 · 10:30
The score model makes an Suwon Bluewings win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cheongju 0.81 – 1.68 Suwon Bluewings.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheongju win | 17.5% | 18.1% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.1% | +0.7% |
| Suwon Bluewings win | 57.6% | 57.8% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 51.3% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 30.9% | -6.7% |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 50.5% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 35.0% | -11.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cheongju 47.4 / Suwon Bluewings 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.