Gangwon vs Jeju SK
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-20 · 09:30 CET
LDWDD
DWLLLThe score model made a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.20 – 0.96 Jeju SK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 40.3% | 42.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 29.3% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Jeju SK win | 28.0% | 28.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.7% | 44.0% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 23.8% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 49.7% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 30.2% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 47.2 / Jeju SK 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gangwon vs Jeju SK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.