Ulsan HD vs Anyang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-02 · 10:30
The score model makes a Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ulsan HD 1.40 – 1.38 Anyang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD win | 37.0% | 49.0% | -12.0% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.7% | +0.1% |
| Anyang win | 36.2% | 24.4% | +11.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 51.2% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 30.7% | -0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 54.4% | +2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 35.0% | -1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ulsan HD 44.2 / Anyang 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.