Daejeon vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-02 · 10:30
The score model makes a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.65 – 0.92 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 53.9% | 63.1% | -9.1% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 22.3% | +3.5% |
| Gwangju FC win | 20.2% | 14.6% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 51.5% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 30.7% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 47.7% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 34.6% | -6.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 43.4 / Gwangju FC 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.