Daejeon vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-02 · 12:30 CET
WLWWD
DLDLDThe score model made a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.65 – 0.93 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 53.7% | 63.4% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 22.3% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Gwangju FC win | 20.5% | 14.3% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 51.7% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 30.7% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 47.8% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 34.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 43.4 / Gwangju FC 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.