Pohang vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-01 · 10:30
The score model makes a Pohang win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pohang 1.28 – 1.25 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pohang win | 36.5% | 45.3% | -8.7% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.5% | -0.2% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 35.2% | 26.2% | +9.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 44.1% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 24.5% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 49.3% | +2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 30.7% | -0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pohang 44.4 / Gimcheon Sangmu 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.