Jeonbuk vs Seoul
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-01 · 10:30
The score model makes a Jeonbuk win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeonbuk 1.35 – 1.15 Seoul.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk win | 40.8% | 36.0% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 30.1% | -1.9% |
| Seoul win | 31.0% | 33.9% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 47.4% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 27.9% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 54.0% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 32.8% | -5.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeonbuk 44.3 / Seoul 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.