Gangwon vs Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-01 · 12:30 CET
LDDWD
LDLLDThe score model made a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.24 – 0.79 Bucheon FC 1995.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 46.1% | 60.7% | -14.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 24.5% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 22.9% | 14.8% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.9% | 43.8% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.7% | 23.6% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 42.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 30.0% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 44.2 / Bucheon FC 1995 17 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.