Gangwon vs Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-01 · 10:30
The score model makes a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 1.24 – 0.79 Bucheon FC 1995.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 46.1% | 61.1% | -15.0% |
| Draw | 31.1% | 24.4% | +6.7% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 22.9% | 14.5% | +8.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.9% | 43.9% | -11.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.7% | 23.8% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 42.0% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 30.2% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 44.4 / Bucheon FC 1995 17.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.