Seoul vs Pohang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-07-22 · 14:30 CET
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LWDLDThe score model made a Seoul win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seoul 1.37 – 1.05 Pohang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul win | 43.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Pohang win | 28.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Seoul 39.3 / Pohang 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.