Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-07-22 · 14:30 CET
LDLDL
DDLDDThe score model made a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.01 – 1.63 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 23.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 51.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 38.5 / Gimcheon Sangmu 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.