Bravo vs Koper
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-02 · 17:00 CET
DWWLD
LWDWWThe score model makes a Koper win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.8% vs 60.1% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bravo 1.28 – 1.45 Koper.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo win | 31.4% | 31.2% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.3% | +2.9% |
| Koper win | 39.4% | 42.5% | -3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 58.2% | -6.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 39.9% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 60.9% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 41.0% | -7.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bravo 47.7 / Koper 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bravo vs Koper in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.