Bravo vs O. Ljubljana
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-20 · 15:00 CET
DWWLD
WWLDWThe score model made an O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bravo 1.06 – 1.23 O. Ljubljana.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo win | 29.9% | 26.4% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 27.1% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| O. Ljubljana win | 38.5% | 46.4% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 50.0% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 29.6% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 54.2% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 34.9% | -11.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bravo 48.5 / O. Ljubljana 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bravo vs O. Ljubljana in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.