Maribor vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-19 · 20:15 CET
DWDWD
DWDLLThe score model made a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maribor 2.01 – 0.87 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor win | 62.7% | 64.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 20.3% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Aluminij win | 14.2% | 14.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 57.5% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 36.8% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 50.7% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 39.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maribor 48.8 / Aluminij 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Maribor vs Aluminij in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.