Koper vs Nafta
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-19 · 17:30 CET
WLWDW
WWLWDThe score model made a Koper win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koper 2.08 – 0.96 Nafta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koper win | 62.0% | 57.7% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Nafta win | 15.3% | 18.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 57.5% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 55.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 40.3% | -9.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koper 47.7 / Nafta 21.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Koper vs Nafta in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.