Celje vs O. Ljubljana
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-08 · 20:15 CET
WWLWL
DWDWWThe score model made a Celje win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celje 1.71 – 1.13 O. Ljubljana.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 50.0% | 45.9% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.9% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| O. Ljubljana win | 24.1% | 28.2% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 58.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 37.8% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 61.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 40.2% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celje 45 / O. Ljubljana 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.