Radomlje vs Bravo
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-02 · 18:00 CET
LWLDL
DLWDDThe score model made a Bravo win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.31 – 1.70 Bravo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 28.6% | 31.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Bravo win | 45.7% | 42.6% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 57.8% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 37.1% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 60.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 39.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomlje 45.5 / Bravo 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.