O. Ljubljana vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-02 · 20:15 CET
DWDWW
WLLDDThe score model made an O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: O. Ljubljana 1.97 – 0.78 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Ljubljana win | 64.5% | 56.7% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Aluminij win | 13.1% | 19.4% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 54.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 53.9% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 37.6% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: O. Ljubljana 45.5 / Aluminij 29.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.