Nafta vs Mura
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-01 · 18:00 CET
DLLLW
WLLDDThe score model made a Nafta win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 5:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nafta 1.13 – 1.13 Mura.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta win | 34.7% | 37.9% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.7% | 28.1% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Mura win | 34.6% | 34.0% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 50.0% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 29.4% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 55.1% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 34.3% | -8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nafta 15.9 / Mura 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.