Celje vs Maribor
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-01 · 20:15 CET
WWLWL
DWWDDThe score model made a Celje win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celje 1.82 – 1.25 Maribor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 50.0% | 38.0% | +11.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Maribor win | 25.5% | 35.7% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 62.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 42.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 65.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 42.6% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celje 44.6 / Maribor 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.