Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Radnicki 1923
Serbia, Serbia · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
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LLWLWThe score model makes a Zeleznicar Pancevo win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.2% vs 66.2% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zeleznicar Pancevo 1.59 – 0.96 Radnicki 1923.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zeleznicar Pancevo win | 50.8% | 51.7% | -1.0% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.7% | +2.1% |
| Radnicki 1923 win | 21.4% | 22.6% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 49.9% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 28.8% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 51.8% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.8% | -4.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Zeleznicar Pancevo 44.4 / Radnicki 1923 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.