Celtic vs Rangers
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 CET
WWLWW
WWWDWThe score model made a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celtic 1.96 – 1.22 Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 54.1% | 43.5% | +10.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Rangers win | 23.3% | 30.6% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 60.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 39.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 63.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.2% | 41.8% | +2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celtic 45.8 / Rangers 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Celtic vs Rangers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.