St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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DWWDWThe score model made a St. Mirren win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Mirren 1.26 – 1.05 Dundee Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mirren win | 40.8% | 41.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 26.1% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Dundee Utd win | 30.7% | 32.9% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 58.8% | -18.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 38.0% | -17.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | 62.0% | -15.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.3% | 39.9% | -15.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Mirren 47.4 / Dundee Utd 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.