Kilmarnock vs Hearts
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-19 · 18:45 CET
WDLWL
WLDWLThe score model made a Hearts win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.11 – 1.78 Hearts.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 23.5% | 20.8% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 23.9% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Hearts win | 52.9% | 55.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 58.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 38.1% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 58.5% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 40.9% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kilmarnock 45.7 / Hearts 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kilmarnock vs Hearts in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.