Rangers vs Hibernian
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-09 · 17:00 CET
DLWWW
LWWLLThe score model made a Rangers win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rangers 2.10 – 1.06 Hibernian.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 61.0% | 61.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.6% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Hibernian win | 18.1% | 17.0% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 60.7% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 39.8% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 57.4% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 41.3% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rangers 44.7 / Hibernian 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.