Motherwell vs Falkirk
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-09 · 16:00 CET
WDDWL
LDLLDThe score model made a Motherwell win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motherwell 1.89 – 0.98 Falkirk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 58.6% | 51.8% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 25.3% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Falkirk win | 18.8% | 22.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 54.6% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 33.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 56.2% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 37.0% | +4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motherwell 44.6 / Falkirk 26.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.